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11/13/2008 - McQuilling Services Weekly Note 31: Selected World Scale Rates 2009-2008 |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the latest McQuilling Services Weekly Note No. 31 on selected 2009 Worldscale flat rates. The new rates have increased on average 33% in 2009 over 2008 levels for the below selected rates. This implies, all other things being equal, that the spot rate quoted on a 2009 basis should be lower than that quoted on a 2008 basis in order to produce equivalent TCE revenues in each case. |
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| 10/31/2008 - McQuilling Services Weekly Note 30: Present Market Crisis |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the latest McQuilling Services Weekly Note No. 30 on the Present Market Crisis. The present market environment is being marked by one of the worst global financial crisis of the century, causing an economic recession in most developed economies. Given that economic recessions historically last for about ten months on average, and the present one started at the beginning of 2008, we may soon expect to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Meanwhile the value of stocks - including the ones of the publicly trading shipping companies – is still significantly low. That, paired with falling asset prices, attracts investors to the shipping industry. |
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| 10/21/2008 - McQuilling Geopolitical Update, The US, Europe and Bretton Woods II, ref. Strategic Forecasting, Inc. |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the posting of Stategic Forecasting, Inc.'s report entitled: "The United States, Europe and Bretton Woods II." After first exploring the history of the Bretton Woods system of 1944, amidst the ending US depression and ensuing World War II, the author brings us to our current economic situation that has led to proposed meetings in December with an American offer to host a global financial summit. |
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| 10/16/2008 - McQuilling Services Weekly Note 29: First Half 2008 Demand Analysis |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the latest McQuilling Services Weekly Note No. 29 on First Half 2008 Demand Analysis. Overall, dirty tanker demand across four sectors dropped by (0.7%) in the first half of 2008 as compared to the first half of 2007. The VLCC sector alone dropped by (2.1%) in the same time period. While some may expect the drop in demand to drag the rates down, in actuality there was an inverse reaction. The rates recorded historically high levels for the second quarter of the year and that occurred, as we mentioned in our earlier reports, as a result of various supply constraints. |
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| 10/14/2008 - McQuilling Global Financial Update, Strategic Forecasting, Inc. |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the posting of Stategic Forecasting, Inc.'s report on States, Economies and Markets: Redefining the Rules. The global political system is seeking to utilize the assets of the global economy (by taxing or printing money) in order to take control of the global financial system. The premise is that the chaos in the financial system is such that the markets cannot correct the situation themselves, and certainly not in an acceptable period of time; and that if the situation were to go on, the net result would be not just financial chaos but potentially economic disaster. Therefore, governments decided to use the resources of the economy to solve the problem. |
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| 10/13/2008 - McQuilling European Financial Crisis Update, Strategic Forecasting, Inc. |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the posting of Stategic Forecasting, Inc.'s report on the European Financial Crisis. Europe is settling in for a protracted banking crisis. Ultimately, the American problem is limited to the United States' financial and housing sectors. Should the United States' problems spread to other sectors, the crisis at its core will still remain a credit crunch. In Europe, various regionalized and interconnected weaknesses are much broader and deeper, pointing to systemic problems in the banking sector itself. For the United States, developments the week of Oct. 5 might signal the beginning of the end of the crisis. But for Europe, this is merely the end of the beginning. |
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| 10/10/2008 - McQuilling Services Weekly Note 28: Scrap Prices and Green Shipbreaking |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the latest McQuilling Services Weekly Note No. 28 on Scrap Prices and Green Shipbreaking. The recent fall in dry and wet freight rates can be expected to cause a significant number of older ships to head towards the breaking yards. Those yards are a current topic at the IMO discussion of the draft convention at the Marine Environment Protection Committee on initiatives to promote the environmentally friendly shipbreaking. Concurrently, the scrap price fell by about 30% in the last month and further softening in price can be expected. Therefore, a mix of discussions regarding the shipbreaking industry is presently taking place. In order to put all of it into perspective, we have analyzed the sensitivity of a scrap price in terms of commercial shipping projects and realized possible alternatives that can add value to the current mix of discussions. |
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| 10/1/2008 - McQuilling US Economic Update, Strategic Forecasting, Inc. |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the posting of Stategic Forecasting, Inc.'s report on the current US economic situation. There are numerous viewpoints and political positions behind the bailout plans, and reference to historical similarities helps us to define where we are now. |
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| 9/30/2008 - McQuilling Geopolitical Update, Presidential Debate, Strategic Forecasting, Inc. |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the posting of Stategic Forecasting, Inc.'s fourth report on the U.S. presidential debate on foreign policy, which was held Sept. 26. It began with a discussion of the current financial crisis and then turned to foreign policy, and as with most debates, there was no clear winner. Partisans of either candidate will assert that their candidate clearly won, pointing to whatever they choose to point to as evidence. |
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| 9/29/2008 - McQuilling Geopolitical Update, Obama's Foreign Policy Stance, Strategic Forecasting, Inc. |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the posting of Stategic Forecasting, Inc.'s third report on the presidential election and the geopolitical impact of such. John McCain is the Republican candidate for president. This means he is embedded in the Republican tradition. That tradition has two roots, which are somewhat at odds with each other: One root is found in Theodore Roosevelt's variety of internationalism, and the other in Henry Cabot Lodge's opposition to the League of Nations. Those roots still exist in the Republican Party. But accommodations to the reality the Democrats created after World War II -- and that Eisenhower, Nixon and, to some extent, Reagan followed -- have overlain them. In many ways, the Republican tradition of foreign policy is therefore more complex than the Democratic tradition. |
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| 9/26/2008 - McQuilling Geopolitical Update, Obama's Foreign Policy Stance, Strategic Forecasting, Inc. |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the posting of Stategic Forecasting, Inc.'s report on Senator Barack Obama's foreign policy stance, and the stance of his predominantly Democratic advisers regarding the same. Together they carry with them an institutional memory of the Democratic Party's approach to foreign policy, and are an expression of the complexity and divisions of that approach. Like their Republican counterparts, in many ways they are going to be severely constrained as to what they can do both by the nature of the global landscape and American resources. But to some extent, they will also be constrained and defined by the tradition they come from. Understanding that tradition and Obama's place is useful in understanding what an Obama presidency would look like in foreign affairs. |
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| 9/25/2008 - McQuilling Geopolitical Update, The New President and the Global Landscape, Strategic Forecasting, Inc. |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the posting of the first article from Strategic Forecasting Inc. (www.StratFor.com). Stratfor is a leading global online publisher of geopolitical intelligence. This article is the first of a four-part report analyzing and forecasting the geopolitical impact of the US election. In this series Stratfor, a private, non-partisan intelligence service with no preference for one candidate over the other, seek to answer two questions: What is the geopolitical landscape that will confront the next president, and what foreign policy proposals would a President McCain or a President Obama bring to bear? We hope you find this new service of value |
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| 9/17/2008 - McQuilling Services Weekly Note 27: 2008 Hurricane Season Impact |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the latest McQuilling Services Weekly Note No. 27 on the 2008 Hurricane Season's impact on the US Gulf. The US Gulf total production was around 1.3 million barrels per day before the preparation for hurricane Gustav begun on August 30, 2008. Hurricane Gustav was closely followed by hurricane Ike and they jointly caused about 75% to 100% halt in the total USG oil production since September 1, 2008. As of today the Minerals Management Service estimates around 22 million barrels of oil production to have been shut in since then. Therefore, even with presently resuming production, the 2008 Hurricane season has already marked the third largest US Gulf production halt since 1995. |
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| 9/15/2008 - McQuilling Services Weekly Note 26: Bunker Price Effect on Flat Rates |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the latest McQuilling Services Weekly Note No. 26 on Bunker Price Effect on Flat Rates. Tanker freight rates are published once a year by the Worldscale Association. The published rates are based on US$/MT units and are referred to as flat rates. The 2009 flat rates will be announced in a few months and are expected to increase significantly from the 2008 levels. That increase will reflect the changes in port costs, which have grown at a general rate of inflation in addition to some currency adjustment, and the 2008 record setting bunker prices which may cause an unprecedented annual increase in the Worldscale flat rates. |
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| 8/29/2008 - McQuilling Services Weekly Note 25: Tanker Shipping Seminars |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the latest McQuilling Services Weekly Note No. 25 on Shipping Training Seminars. Training is a key component of an effective workforce and we hope this note may be of use to you in considering your employee training needs. |
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| 8/22/2008 - McQuilling Services Weekly Note: Suezmax First Half 2008 Summary |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our latest Weekly Note: Suezmax First Half 2008 Summary. The Suezmax sector looked quite positive in the first half of 2008. The fleet is in balance and earnings reached high levels in spite of record high bunker prices. The newbuilding prices remained steady while the
demolition prices reached above US $700 / ldt. |
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| 8/15/2008 - McQuilling Services Weekly Note: VLCC First Half 2008 Summary |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our latest Weekly Note: First Half 2008 Summary. The first half of 2008 certainly surprised many participants in the shipping industry. The unseasonably strong market mitigated the impact of rising bunker prices and resulted in significant revenues earned by the vessels exposed to the spot or rising period market. |
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| 8/7/2008 - McQuilling Services Weekly Note: Optimum Speed Dashboard |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our latest Weekly Note: Optimum Speed Dashboard. In today’s market environment we have seen dramatic increases in freight market levels and skyrocketing bunker prices. As a result, the optimum speed calculation for modern tankers is again relevant and operating at the “optimum” speed can produce substantial financial benefits to the ship owner or operator. There may be a benefit of as much as US$ 1,000 per day to be running at the optimum speed versus one knot faster or slower. |
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| 7/31/2008 - McQuilling Services Weekly Note: Aframax 1st Half 2008 Summary |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our latest Weekly Note: Aframax First Half 2008 Summary. Strong freight rates in the first half of 2008, especially in the Med markets, brought a lot of attention to the sector. We graphically illustrated certain key drivers in the sector while the text below shortly describes
market behavior in the first half of 2008. |
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| 7/24/2008 - McQuilling Services Weekly Note: Period Charter Market |
| One of many important decisions faced by the shipping planners is whether to employ their vessels on spot or period markets. While ship owners around the world follow many different deployment strategies, recent market conditions are not making that decision any easier. For instance, placing a vessel on a long term time charter in the present market protects the owners from high bunker prices and provides a steady cash flow at healthy period rates across five tanker sectors. On the other hand, however, it prevents the owner from maximizing potential earnings by taking advantage of the presently strong spot market and triangulating opportunities. |
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| 7/15/2008 - Huntington students make real-world art for McQuilling, Garden City offices |
| When David Saginaw, commercial director for McQuilling Services in Garden City, looked at the plain, brick walls of the company's atrium, he went to the Huntington High School for a solution. Now, the walls are adorned with five 8-ft by 8-ft panels, created by Kasmira Mohanty's advanced graphic design students as part of a "Project Based Learning" opportunity. The five students, Ryan Loscalzo, Johanna Clifford, Daniel Rabinowitz, Brian Riggs and Marissa Rosenfeld, met with McQuilling, a company involved in shipping oil, to come up with their designs. The images, created on computers using Photoshop and Illustrator, all have oil-production themes, but each piece incorporates the individual style of the artists. Clifford, a 10th-grader, said her piece has "a geometric feel," while Loscalzo's has "a watercolor feel." Each piece was printed out on four 4-ft by 4-ft sections and then assembled into one image. Saginaw contacted the district in the fall, and then the school set to find a teacher interested in heading the project. Mohanty said some art teachers opted out because of the size of the project and concerns about staying within the $5,000 budget. "It came down to me," said Mohanty, who said she could do the project "very cost efficiently." When the project was finished, the team had $3,000 left over, which McQuilling donated to the High School Art Honor Society. "What we like most is that the pieces have really brought a lot of color and variety to the space, and really brightened and livened it up," said Saginaw, whose two children attend Southdown Primary School and Woodhull Intermediate School. In lieu of their regular art assignments, the students worked on the project during class from February to May. "It was a huge honor," said Loscalzo, 16, of being chosen for the project. "I was excited that I could get critiqued by different people instead of just teachers." Before completing the assignment, the students met with McQuilling officials to tweak the images to the company's liking, such as changing colors. Loscalzo hopes he can apply his graphic-design skills to a career in marketing. At a reception held at McQuilling's office on July 2nd, the students signed their artwork and received a certificate for outstanding achievement. "The big excitement is that the education world today is telling us that for kids to be really engaged in learning, it has to be relevant and it has to be something real," said Joan Fretz, director of Fine and Performing Arts for Huntington Schools, of Project Based Learning assignments. "And when you do that, the level of thinking and 21st century skills that develop is mind-boggling. That's what's going to make kids want to be lifelong learners and creative professionals." Mohanty, who worked for 13 years working in the graphic-design field, has taught at Huntington High School for seven years. "They exceeded my expectations," said Mohanty, who chose the students for the project based on their talent and ability to handle the pressure and criticism the assignment entailed. It took a carpentry team, Mohanty, and the students an entire day to hang the pictures in the atrium. |
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| 7/10/2008 - McQuilling Services Weekly Note: 2008 Hurricane Season |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our latest Weekly Note: 2008 Hurricane Season. Although the credibility of weather forecasters in the public eye has diminished due to their frequent inaccuracy, the hurricane season forecast is still taken very seriously.
The forecast that we follow is derived from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA - the federal agency within the US Department of Commerce) issue of Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook published in May of each year. This year the agency predicts abovenormal hurricane activity with 12 – 16 named storms, including 6 – 9 hurricanes, of which 2 – 5 will be intense, during the 2008 season. |
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| 7/8/2008 - McQuilling Announces an Opening of McQuilling de Mexico Office |
| McQuilling is pleased to announce the opening of our new office, McQuilling de Mexico SRL de CV. The office, located in Mexico City, represents an important step in the Company's strategy of expanding its presence in Latin America following the formation of offices in Caracas, Venezuela in 2004 and Lima, Peru in 2007. We continue to believe Latin America represents one of the most promising regions of significant business opportunities in our industry and look forward to building relationships through this new office. Joining the McQuilling team to manage the activities of McQuilling de Mexico is long-time industry associate Mr. Lauro E. Gonzalez C. who brings with him more than 25 years of industry experience. Offic contact details are: McQuilling de Mexico SRL de CV
Masaryk 111- 1st floor.
Col. Chapultepec Morales
Delegación Miguel Hidalgo
Mexico D.F. 11560
Telephone: 52 55 3300 5947 / 3300 5949
Fax: 52 55 3300 5999
Email mcquillingmexico@ymail.com
Mr. Lauro E. Gonzalez C.
Yahoo ID: lauroglez
Mobile: 521 55 3233 9348 |
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| 6/20/2008 - McQuilling Services Weekly Note: 2008 First Quarter Demand Analysis |
| In our Weekly Note No. 14 we attributed the strength of the present tanker market to the disruptions in the short term supply factors that constrained tanker tonnage and caused the rates to surge. While that still remains the case, we have recently received the latest tanker demand data for the first quarter of 2008 which was not available earlier in the year. Having the data in hand allows us to take a closer look at the demand side of the equation and evaluate whether there was an increase in dirty tanker demand that may have materially contributed to the market surge; or is the market strength indeed caused primarily by the supply constrains specified in our Note No. 14? |
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| 6/11/2008 - McQuilling Services Weekly Note: Tanker Contracting |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our lates Weekly Note: Tanker Contracting. The present environment is overwhelmingly defined by financial difficulties and high commodity prices causing a slow down in the world economy. Conversely, dry and wet shipping markets are booming and prices of vessels are at historical highs. Furthermore, newbuilding tanker orders are continually being placed in spite of the present financial turmoil. In order to place this into perspective, we have analyzed recent tanker contracting in parallel to the price of vessels and tried to understand the driving factor behind current tanker newbuilding contracts. |
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| 5/27/2008 - McQuilling Weekly Note: Single vs. Double Hull Rates |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our lates Weekly Note: Single vs. Double Hull Rates. Despite recent exits for demolition and conversion projects, single hull tankers still represent about 30% of the VLCC fleet and a significant carrying capacity. Single
hull tonnage has been trading at a discounted rate to the double hull vessels for quite some time. By constantly measuring the size of the spread between single and double hull freight rates, as well as the magnitude of fixing activity of each, we track the changes in the spot rates and analyze their behavior. |
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| 5/15/2008 - McQuilling Weekly Note: Currrent Short Term Supply Factors |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our lates Weekly Note: Current Short Term Supply Factors. Currently, crude and dirty product spot freight markets have been unusually high for the second quarter of the year. In our assessment of the marketplace we attribute the present strength of the market to changes in the supply side of the equation rather than demand. Although natural instincts may tell us that the reason for market spikes lays in increased demand, it may not always be the case. In fact, we believe oil demand may be down by 500,000 bpd from our January, 2008 expectations and we note multiple supply factors that, conspiring together, place supply in deficit to the current demand figures. |
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| 5/8/2008 - McQuilling Weekly Note: MARPOL Annex VI |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our lates Weekly Note: MARPOL Annex VI. During the latest Annex VI meeting, at the beginning of April 2008, a plan for reducing emissions from ships was agreed on. The new plan, ratified by 49 countries representing 75% of gross tonnage of the world’s merchant fleet, set regulations for reducing air pollution from ships by mandating the use of engine fuel with lower sulphur content. The plan will be adopted in October 2008 and its ultimate goal will be to reach a global sulphur cap of 0.5% by 2020. |
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| 5/2/2008 - McQuilling Weekly Note: Indian Oil and Shipbuilding Sector |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our lates Weekly Note: Indian Oil and Shipbuilding sector. India is the second-largest growing economy in the world with population of over 1.1 billion and a GDP growth rate of 9.4% for 2006–2007 fiscal year. The country is the fifth biggest oil consumer in the world with shipping related sectors, such as energy transportation and shipbuilding, constantly expending. Therefore, we believe that India’s
new energy developments and shipbuilding plans are
certainly noteworthy as they may have a significant effect on the world shipping markets. |
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| 4/24/2008 - McQuilling Weekly Note: Suezmax First Quarter Summary 2008 |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our lates Weekly Note: Suezmax First Quarter Summary 2008. Strong freight rates in the first quarter of 2008, especially in the Black Sea and Med markets, brought a lot of attention to the sector this quarter. We graphically illustrated certain key drivers in the sector that describe market behavior in the first quarter of 2008. |
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| 4/21/2008 - McQuilling Weekly Note: Tanker Demand |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our lates Weekly Note: Tanker Demand. We are of the opinion that tanker markets are driven by interactions of supply and demand. While tracing short term demand remains a constant challenge, long term or
annual world demand data provides solid grounds for
comparison and analysis of tanker demand on yearly basis. |
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| 4/14/2008 - McQuilling Monthly Note: VLCC First Quarter Summary |
| With this note we begin a series of quarterly summaries on various tanker sectors. The intent is to keep our readers abreast on the tanker market by graphically illustrating the behavior of sector fundamentals over a three month period. |
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| 4/2/2008 - McQuilling Peru News: A New Start to the Peruvian Flag Merchant Fleet |
| The Peruvian flag is set to acquire its first merchant vessel in many years. On Monday, April 7, 2008 the product tanker Mika M. will be renamed Alorca and reflagged into the Peruvian registry.
The vessel is owned by Peruvian shipping company Transgas, a privately held firm started more than 15 years ago by Luis Bocanegra, the company's president and owner . From modest origins, Mr. Bocanegra through his experience and vision has steadily expanded the company to include the 10 LPG carriers and 1 product tanker in the Transgas fleet today.
Their latest acquisition is the vessel Alorca. The vessel is a product tanker built to carry clean products, dirty products and IMO 3 chemical products. The 14,200 Dwt vessel was built in 1988 at the Halla shipyard in Korea and holds a double hull certification issued by Lloyds Register.
Purchased by the company from a Greek shipping company, the delivery took place by the end of 2007 in Pireus, Greece. The vessel has been fixed by Transgas to Repsol (Peru) on a 5 year contract to operate in the Callao bay providing bunkering services.
The vessel's crew will be 100% Peruvian, as are all of the crew members on Transgas vessels The Alorca will be the first vessel to comply with the Peruvian law to reactivate the national merchant marine. The vessel will be the first privately owned vessel to carry Peruvian flag in more than 15 years.
Transgas is hopeful that this initiative will be the beginning of a chain of events that will encourage other Peruvian owners to carry Peruvian flag, creating this way a national fleet to develop the growing transportation requirements both for imports and exports.
The flagging ceremony will take place April 7th at 0730 hours Peru time in the Sima shipyards facilities located in Callao. In attendance at the ceremony will be Peruvian Prime Minister Jorge del Castillo, and other important local politicians.
Transgas operates in markets worldwide from offices located in Lima, Peru and Coral Springs, Florida. For more information on Transgas please visit their website: www.transgas.com.pe
For information on the Sima shipyard please visit www.sima.com.pe. |
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| 3/28/2008 - McQuilling Weekly Note: Investment Attractivness |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our lates Weekly Note: Investment Attractivness. Acquisition prices in the tanker market continue to climb for both newbuildings and second-hand tonnage. Concurrently the international financial turmoil spawned by the US subprime mortgage crisis has tightened credit markets. Meanwhile the outlook for tanker earnings over the next few years is clouded by a mountainous orderbook in 2009. There is a growing perception that the investment attractiveness in tanker projects is diminishing as a result of these industry influences. |
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| 3/19/2008 - McQuilling Weekly Note: Ice Class Tankers |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our lates Weekly Note: Ice Class Tankers. In comparison to our March 2006 ice class note, significant reduction in ice class orderbook can be observed. Almost forty ice class vessels are expected to deliver by 2010 which
is about half the size of 2006 orderbook. Decrease in
newbuilding orders was recorded in 2007 in comparison to 2006 across the fleet, and therefore ordering of ice class tankers followed the same trend. |
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| 3/12/2008 - McQuilling Weekly Note: Single Hull Fleet |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our lates Weekly Note: The single hull tankers are slowly exiting the fleet and heading either towards the repair yards for variety of conversions or towards the shipbreaking yards. So far this year we count a total of nine vessels sold for scrap and the scrap price reaching US $725 / ldt. In the above calculations we used a more conservative approach of US $700 / ldt. At that price the single hull fleet of 635 vessels is valued at almost US $8 billion. In order to replace that fleet with newbuilding contracts, at today's asset prices, would require over US $52 billion. However, it
must be noticed that the single hull fleet is the "cash cow" for the shipowners. Despite the fact that the single hull tonnage trades at a discounted freight and utilization levels, most of the fleet is paid off and the only cost remaining is the operating cost of about $11,000 / day for a single hull VLCC tanker. In today's market that same single hull tanker earns around US
$35,000 / day. Therefore, unless the vessels are committed to other profitable projects such as conversions and absent additional pollution incidents, the phase-out of single hull tankers will take place gradually and single hulls will remain a valuable part of tanker fleet. |
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| 3/5/2008 - McQuilling Weekly Note: Shipbuilding Prices |
| Recent media headlines on cancellation of newbuidling contracts due to lack of financing power, delays in deliveries from Chinese shipyards, never-ending increase in prices of raw materials, Japanese shipyards’ confrontation with steel-mills and delayed engine availability are all
indicating uncertain times in the shipbuilding industry. We are of the opinion that if the mentioned occurrences conspired together they may eventually create a negative outlook, but the actual crisis is not yet on the horizon… |
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| 2/20/2008 - McQuilling Weekly Note: Shipbreaking Going Green |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our lates Weekly Note: Shipbreaking Going Green. A successful completion of Convention on Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships took place at the end of 2007. The start of Ratification Process is
expected to take place in 2008 and entry into force is
projected after 2009. We believe that the social pressure to go green due to global environmental concerns backed by the enforcement of new guidelines and substantial number of single hull tankers due to exit the fleet will radically change ship breaking industry in the future. |
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| 2/13/2008 - McQuilling Weekly Note: Marine Fraction |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our lates Weekly Note: Marine Fraction. Across most industries forecasting is an activity that is by definition inaccurate and imprecise. This is particularly true in the tanker industry when attempting to forecast freight rates for future periods. The methodology used at McQuilling Services focuses on the interaction of tonnage supply and tanker demand as a key element in the process of predicting rates… |
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| 1/25/2008 - McQuilling Tanker Market Outlook 2008 - 2012 is available now! |
| McQuilling Services has just released its January 2008 Tanker Market Outlook for the period 2008 through 2012. The report, produced each year in January, presents a forecast for 10 trades in the five major tanker sectors through 2012. Six dirty trades and four clean trades are evaluated and discussed. Spot freight rates in the tanker marketplace are influenced by many things. McQuilling uses a systematic methodology combining analytical techniques with practical experience and observations to project freight rates through 2012. Our comprehensive approach begins with a review of the global economic context and continues through the development of annual and monthly freight rates in ten major tanker trades. In the Outlook we discuss our expectations of where the spot market in the various sectors may be headed over the next few years and the reasons why we think so. Using our approach to evaluating the tanker market we have consistently forecast market levels across sectors close to actual results observed achieving a 3% forecast error over ten trades in 2007. |
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| 1/17/2008 - McQuilling Monthly Note: Tanker Fleet |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our latest Monthly Note: Tanker Fleet. The VLCC sector remains by far the largest in terms of capacity and therefore 47 exits expected in 2008 will have a big impact on the overall tonnage supply. The Suezmax sector remains moderate with balanced capacity until 2009, when a positive net change of 56 vessels is expected. The Aframax sector is the second largest by carrying capacity and a substantial positive net change is expected in the foreseeable future. The Panamax sector is the smallest in terms of carrying capacity and is expected to remain well balanced until 2010. Medium Range, the biggest sector by number of vessels, also shows positive net fleet growth until 2010… |
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| 1/9/2008 - McQuilling Weekly Note: Tanker Demand Analysis |
| McQuilling Services is pleased to announce our latest Monthly Note: Our calculations show that global marine transportation demand on a ton-mile basis in 2007 for crude oil and petroleum products across the five tanker sectors (excluding MR dirty demand) grew about 1.2% over 2006 levels. This compares to year-on-year growth for the period 2005-2006 of about 6%. We measure demand in terms of the total ton miles recorded in each vessel class over the actual trade routes performed during the year. In this way, greater utility is derived from examining demand changes on a sector-by-sector basis rather than from an overall fleet perspective… |
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| 1/7/2008 - The Calculations have been updated for 2008 |
| The Quick Time Charter Equivalent/World Scale Equivalent Calculator has been updated for 2008. To view this page you must be a registered client, if you are not a registered client please register today. |
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